| 武立争,叶小群,侯伟.快速城镇化地区中小城市城镇开发边界划定方法研究——以安徽省庐江县为例[J].安徽建筑大学学报,2021,29(): |
| 快速城镇化地区中小城市城镇开发边界划定方法研究——以安徽省庐江县为例 |
| Research on the Boundary Demarcation method of urban development of small and medium-sized cities in rapid urbanization Area—A Case Study of Lujiang County, Anhui Province |
| 投稿时间：2020-10-10 修订日期：2021-01-12 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 城镇开发边界 FLUS模型 CA模型 城镇化；中小城市 |
| 英文关键词: urban development boundary FLUS model CA model Urbanization |
| 基金项目:本文得到安徽省教育厅人文社会科学重大研究项目,“基于生态安全格局下的安徽省中小城镇开发边界划定技术和管控政策研究”(SK2019ZD52)课题支持 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 合理的划定城镇开发边界对于保护资源合理利用和引导城市空间有序增长具有重要的意义，国内多数研究对于中小城市关注度较低。基于此，本文提出一种基于FLUS模型并耦合政策因素的县级城镇开发边界划定方法，以庐江县为研究案例，在对2014-2019年土地利用进行模拟的和精度验证的基础上对2025年土地利用格局进行预测，结合生态与耕地保护和相关政策指标，最终划定城镇开发边界。结果表明，（1）2019年土地利用模拟结果总体精度值为0.98，Kappa系数为0.97，模型展现出较高的精度。（2）预测2025年庐江县城镇建设用地面积达64.9km2,2020年至2025年城市建设用地增加13.1 km2。（3）兼顾土地利用发展自然规律与政策影响因素，城镇开发边界能有效地避免城镇用地对基本农田与生态红线的侵占，以实现三者之间良好的空间协调，可为快速城镇化地区中小城市城镇开发边界的划定提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract: Reasonable demarcation of urban development boundaries is of great significance to protect the rational use of resources and guide the orderly growth of urban space. Most domestic studies pay little attention to small and medium-sized cities. Based on this, this paper proposes a model based on FLUS policy factors and coupling of county town development boundary delimitation method, cultivated as a case study, the simulation of land use from 2014 to 2019 and the precision verification on the basis of the forecast of land use pattern in 2025, the combination of ecology and the cultivated land protection and related policy indicators, border town development finally. The results show that ;(1)the overall accuracy of the simulation results of land use in 2019 value of 0.98, Kappa coefficient is 0.97, model show a higher accuracy. (2) forecast 2025 cultivated urban construction land area of 64.9 km2, urban construction land from 2020 to 2025 increased by 13.1 km2. (3) both natural law and policy factors affecting land use development, urban development boundary can effectively avoid urban land occupation of basic farmland and ecology red line, in order to realize the coordination between and among good space, for small and medium-sized cities in the rapid urbanization development to provide the reference for delimiting border town. |
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