| 汪勇政,穆珂珂,吴亚伟.巢湖流域土地利用多情景模拟及生态环境效应分析[J].安徽建筑大学学报,2026,34(3):19-28，96 |
| 巢湖流域土地利用多情景模拟及生态环境效应分析 |
| Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and Analysis of Ecological Environment Effects in the Chaohu Lake Basin |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: PLUS模型 土地利用变化 生态环境效应 巢湖流域 |
| 英文关键词: PLUS model land use change ecological environment effects Chaohu River Basin |
| 基金项目:安徽省高校省级自然科学研究重点项目（2022AH050242） |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 汪勇政 | School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230022,China；Anhui Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Urbanization Construction,Hefei 230022,China | | 穆珂珂 | School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China | | 吴亚伟 | School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China；Hefei Urban Planning and Design Institute,Hefei 230041,China |
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| 摘要点击次数: 9 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 科学模拟多情景下土地利用变化及其生态环境效应，对优化国土空间布局、推进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。以巢湖流域为研究区，运用生态环境效应模型与 PLUS 模型，探析 2035年多情景下巢湖流域土地利用与生态环境质量的耦合关系。研究结果表明：2002—2022年，流域建设用地面积持续扩张，耕地、林地、草地、水域面积整体呈缩减趋势；生态环境质量指数呈先升后降变化特征，后期下降速率加快，低生态质量空间范围快速扩张。2035年多情景模拟结果显示：自然发展情景与经济发展情景下建设用地保持持续扩张态势；生态保护情景下耕地面积有所回升，建设用地扩张势头得到有效管控，且该情景下生态环境质量指数最高。基于生态环境效应演变规律与多情景模拟结果可知，巢湖流域未来需严格管控建设用地无序蔓延，统筹协调经济发展与生态保护之间的关系，持续提升区域整体生态环境质量。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Scientific simulation of land use patterns and their ecological environmental effects under multiple scenarios holds significant implications for optimizing territorial spatial layout and advancing sustainable development. Taking the Chaohu Lake Basin as the study area, this research employs ecological environment effect models and the PLUS model to analyze the relationship between land use and ecological environment quality in the basin for the year 2035 under multiple scenarios. The findings are as follows. From 2002 to 2022, the area of construction land exhibited a continuous growth trend, while the areas of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water bodies generally showed a downward trajectory. The ecological environment quality index first increased and then decreased, with the decline rate accelerating in the later period and the relatively low-quality zones expanding rapidly. In the 2035 simulation results, construction land continued to expand under the natural development scenario and economic development scenario. In contrast, under the ecological protection scenario, the area of cultivated land rebounded, the expansion of construction land was effectively curbed, and the ecological environment quality index reached the highest level among all scenarios. Based on the evolution of ecological environment effects and the simulation results, it is concluded that the Chaohu Lake Basin should strictly control the unregulated expansion of construction land in the future, balancing economic development and ecological protection for higher overall ecological environment quality in the region. |
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