| 马明,郭海如,王秉义,毛理虎,周梦茹.基于Markov-FLUS模型的城市扩张模拟及其对生态系统服务价值的影响——以长三角地区为例[J].安徽建筑大学学报,2026,34(2):18-27 |
| 基于Markov-FLUS模型的城市扩张模拟及其对生态系统服务价值的影响——以长三角地区为例 |
| Simulation of Urban Expansion Based on the Markov-FLUS Model and Its Impact on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 城市扩张 生态系统服务价值 Markov-FLUS模型 多情景模拟 长三角地区 |
| 英文关键词: urban sprawl ecosystem service value Markov-FLUS model multi-scenario simulation Yangtze River Delta region |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目（52408045）；安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目（SK2021A0344）；安徽省高校省级人文社会科学研究优秀青年项目（2022AH030030） |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 马明 | School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China；Anhui Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Urbanization,Hefei 230601,China | | 郭海如 | School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China；Anhui Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Urbanization,Hefei 230601,China | | 王秉义 | School of Public Administration,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China；Anhui Provincial Cultivated Land Protection Innovation Demonstration Center,Hefei 230601,China | | 毛理虎 | School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China；Anhui Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Urbanization,Hefei 230601,China | | 周梦茹 | School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 城市扩张对生态系统产生重要影响，模拟城市扩张变化并探究其对生态系统服务价值的影响，对合理引导城市发展、维护区域生态安全具有重要意义。以长三角地区为研究对象，利用城市扩张强度指数、当量因子法分别测算城市扩张强度变化与生态系统服务价值（ESV）；借助 Markov-FLUS模型模拟不同情景下 2030年、2040年土地利用格局演变，进而探讨城市扩张对生态系统服务价值的影响效应。研究发现：Markov-FLUS 模型模拟精度高，Kappa系数均高于0.85，总体精度超过91%。2000—2020年，长三角城市扩张特征显著，东部沿海扩张速率最快，皖北、苏北地区扩张相对缓慢；ESV 高值区主要分布于皖南与浙南区域。在自然发展、城市扩张速率降低 15%、城市扩张速率降低 30% 三种情景下，城市扩张强度指数依次为 0.023 2、0.005 2、0.003 5，ESV 分别为 8 592.02 亿元、8 993.37亿元、9 519.12亿元，放缓城市扩张速率可有效提升生态系统服务价值。城市扩张对生态系统服务价值整体呈负向影响，且影响程度存在显著的区域分异与城市类型差异。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Urban expansion has a significant impact on ecosystems. Simulating changes in urban expansion and exploring their effects on the value of ecosystem services is of great significance for reasonably guiding urban development and maintaining ecological security. Taking the Yangtze River Delta region as the research area, this study uses the urban expansion intensity index and the equivalent factor method to measure changes in urban expansion intensity and ecosystem service value, respectively; it employs the Markov-FLUS model to simulate land use changes in 2030 and 2040 under different scenarios, and explores the impact of urban expansion on the value of ecosystem services.Research has found that the Markov-FLUS model has high simulation accuracy, with Kappa coefficients all exceeding 0.85 and overall accuracy exceeding 91%. From 2000 to 2020, urban expansion in the Yangtze River Delta was significant, fastest in the eastern coastal areas, slower in northern Anhui and northern Jiangsu, while ESV was higher in southern Anhui and southern Zhejiang. Under three scenarios—natural development, a 15% reduction in urban expansion speed, and a 30% reduction in expansion speed— the urban expansion intensity index was 0232 2, 0.005 2. and 0.003 5, respectively, and ESV reached 859.202 billion yuan, 899.337 billion yuan, and 951.912 billion yuan, respectively, a result that suggests reducing expansion speed can effectively enhance ESV. Urban expansion has a negative impact on ecosystem service value, but the degree of impact on ESV varies significantly across regions and types of cities. |
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