| 尹正,朱礼康.基于Leak-Noisy-or-Gate和贝叶斯网络的装配式建筑供应链韧性评价[J].安徽建筑大学学报,2025,33(2):51-57 |
| 基于Leak-Noisy-or-Gate和贝叶斯网络的装配式建筑供应链韧性评价 |
| Resilience Evaluation of Prefabricated Building Supply Chain Based on Leaf-Noisy-or-Gate and Bayesian Network |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 装配式建筑 供应链韧性 贝叶斯网络 Leak-Noisy-or-Gate模型 致因链分析 |
| 英文关键词: prefabricated building supply chain resilience Bayesian network Lead-Noisy-or-Gate model cause chain analysis |
| 基金项目:安徽省住房城乡设计科学技术计划项目（2022-RK053） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本研究致力于评估装配式建筑供应链韧性，并识别其关键影响因素及其影响路径。鉴于供应链韧性在现代建筑产业中的核心地位，本文构建了一个融合Leak-Noisy-or-Gate模型与贝叶斯网络的理论框架，旨在弥补现有研究在致因路径分析方面的不足。研究通过问卷调查收集数据，并运用SPSS软件对数据进行Z-score标准化处理，随后利用Genie软件对贝叶斯网络模型进行仿真模拟。结果显示，装配式建筑供应链韧性的实现概率为68%，表明其韧性水平良好。关键影响因素包括设计方案可行性、产品质量问题、制造工艺规范化、构件运输能力以及配送及时性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study is dedicated to assessing the resilience of the prefabricated construction supply chain and identifying its key influencing factors and impact pathways. Given the central role of supply chain resilience in the modern construction industry, this research constructs a theoretical framework that integrates the Leak-Noisy-or-Gate model with Bayesian networks, aiming to address the shortcomings of existing research in causal pathway analysis. The study collects data through questionnaire surveys and employs SPSS software for Z-score normalization of the data. Subsequently, the Bayesian network model is simulated using Genie software. The results indicate that the realization probability of the prefabricated construction supply chain resilience is 68%, suggesting that its resilience is at a relatively good level. Key influencing factors include the feasibility of design schemes, product quality issues, standardization of manufacturing processes, transportation capacity of components, and timeliness of distribution. |
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