| 武立争,叶小群,侯伟.快速城镇化时期的庐江县城镇开发边界划定研究[J].安徽建筑大学学报,2021,29(5):100-107 |
| 快速城镇化时期的庐江县城镇开发边界划定研究 |
| Research on Demarcation of Urban Development Boundary in Lujiang County during Rapid Urbanization Period |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 城镇开发边界 FLUS 模型 CA 模型 城镇化 中小城市 |
| 英文关键词: urban development boundary FLUS model CA model urbanization small and medium-sized cities |
| 基金项目:安徽省教育厅人文社会科学重大研究项目（SK2019ZD52） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 合理划定城镇开发边界对于促进资源合理利用和引导城市空间有序增长具有重要意义。国内多数研究对于中小城市关注度较低，基于此，本文提出一种基于 FLUS 模型并耦合规划政策的县级城镇开发边界划定方法。本文以庐江县为研究案例，在进行 2014-2019 年土地利用模拟和精度验证的基础上，对 2025 年土地利用格局进行预测，结合生态与耕地保护等相关政策指标，最终划定庐江县城镇开发边界。结果显示，（1）2019 年土地利用模拟结果总体精度值为 0.98，Kappa 系数为 0.97，模型展现出较高的精度；（2）预测 2025年庐江县城镇建设用地面积达 64.9 km2，2020 年至 2025 年城市建设用地增加 13.1 km2；（3）兼顾土地利用发展自然规律与政策影响因素，城镇开发边界能有效地避免城镇用地对基本农田与生态红线的侵占，以实现三者之间良好的空间协调，可以为快速城镇化时期中小城市城镇开发边界的划定提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Reasonable demarcation of urban development boundary is of great significance for rational resource utilization of resourcesand orderly urban growth. For now，most researches in China pay little attention to small and medium-sized cities，hence，thispaper proposes a demarcation method for county-level city development based on FLUS model and planning policy. With the land usesimulation(LUS) and precision validation of Lujiang county from 2014 to 2019，this paper predicts its land use pattern in 2025，anddemarcate the urban development boundary with indicators including ecology，farmland protection and other policies. The results showthat：(1)the overall precision value of LUS in 2019 is 0. 98，and the Kappa coefficient is 0. 97，representing a high precision of themodel；(2) it is predicted that from 2020 to 2025，the urban construction land area in Lujiang County will increase by 13. 1 km2，reaching 64. 9 km2，(3) the demarcation method proposed in this paper takes into account the natural law and policies of land use，which effectively avoid the encroachment of farmland and achieve spatial coordination，and provide a reference for urban developmentboundary of small and medium-sized cities. |
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