| 张励,王杰.健康状况、延迟退休与就业效应[J].安徽建筑大学学报,2018,26(5):109-118 |
| 健康状况、延迟退休与就业效应 |
| The Employment Effect of Health Status and Delaying Retirement |
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| DOI：10.11921/j.issn.2095-8382.20180518 |
| 中文关键词: 劳动经济学 健康状况 延迟退休 就业 oprobit 模型 xtlogit 回归 |
| 英文关键词: abor economics health status delaying retirement employment oprobit model xtlogit regression |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 近年来中国经济增长从高速转向中高速发展，已然步入了“新常态”。然而，人口老龄化、养老金缺口问题仍然是萦绕在中国经济上空的“阴霾”，加之人均预期寿命的不断提高，国民健康状况的不断改善，现有的退休制度已经不能适应经济和社会的发展，延迟退休政策的出台似乎是势在必行！许多民众担心延迟退休年龄可能会挤占青年人的就业岗位，对青年就业产生负面影响，对这一举措持反对态度。经模型分析及依据 CHNS 面板数据的实证分析发现，短期内，延迟退休可能会对就业产生“挤出效应”，但是这种“挤出效应”因不同地区、性别和行业等有所差异，而且，从长期来看，延迟退休对就业没有负面效应甚至是促进作用。最后给出了延迟退休政策设计的一些建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In recent years，the economy of China，shifting gear from previous high speed to a medium-to-high speed growth，has entered the period of “new normal”. However，the aging population and the pension gap remain a "haze" hovering over the Chinese economy. In addition to the continuous improvement of life expectancy and the improvement of national health，the existing retirement system can’t adapt to the development of economy and society. Therefore the postponement retirement policy is imperative! Many people fear that delaying retirement age could crowd young people out and have a negative effect on youth employment. Through model and empirical analysis，based on CHNS panel data，delaying retirement may have a negative effect on employment in the short term，but the effect varies from one region，gender or industry to another. There is no negative effect on employment in the long run. Finally，some suggestions for the design of the delaying retirement policy are given. |
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