| The rapid urban development has triggered drastic changes in land use, accompanied by increasingly prominent ecological issues. Scientific simulation of land use patterns and their ecological environmental effects under multiple scenarios holds significant implications for optimizing territorial spatial layout and advancing sustainable development. Taking the Chaohu Lake Basin as the study area, this research employs ecological environment effect models and the PLUS model to analyze the relationship between land use and ecological environment quality in the basin for the year 2035 under multiple scenarios. The findings are as follows: (1) From 2002 to 2022, the area of construction land exhibited a continuous growth trend, while the areas of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water bodies generally showed a downward trajectory. The ecological environment quality index first increased and then decreased, with the decline rate accelerating in the later period and the low-quality zones expanding rapidly. (2) In the 2035 simulation results, construction land continued to expand under the natural development scenario and economic development scenario. In contrast, under the ecological protection scenario, the area of cultivated land rebounded, the expansion of construction land was effectively curbed, and the ecological environment quality index reached the highest level among all scenarios. (3) Based on the evolution of ecological environment effects and the simulation results, it is concluded that the Chaohu Lake Basin should strictly control the unregulated expansion of construction land in the future, coordinate the relationship between economic development and ecological protection, so as to enhance the overall ecological environment quality of the region. |
