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| 农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性耦合协调时空演进的实证研究 |
| An Empirical Study on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Coupling and Coordination between Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency and Grain Production Resilience |
| 投稿时间：2025-06-23 修订日期：2025-09-27 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 农业碳排放效率 粮食生产韧性 耦合协调度 超效率SBM模型 核密度估计 空间马尔科夫链 |
| 英文关键词: agricultural carbon emission efficiency the grain production resilience coupling coordination degree super-SBM kernel density estimation spatial markov chains |
| 基金项目:安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题(2024CX062)；自然资源部江淮耕地资源保护与生态修复重点实验室开放课题(ARPE-2023-KF04)；合肥市哲学社会科学规划项目(HFSKQN202523) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 农业低碳转型与粮食安全协同推进是区域可持续发展的核心议题。本文在剖析农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性耦合机制的基础上，以山东省为研究对象，通过超效率SBM模型与综合评价法测算农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性，运用耦合协调度模型、核密度估计及空间马尔科夫链等方法，测算两系统的耦合协调度，揭示其时空分异规律及未来演进特征。研究结果表明：（1）山东省农业碳排放效率呈波动上升趋势，从2014年的0.54428增至2024年的1.03369，各市效率值整体呈现西部地区效率高、东部地区效率低的分布格局；（2）2014—2024年间，山东省粮食生产韧性水平从0.1834上升至0.5893，但区域发展不均衡，整体呈现由西向东递减的变化趋势；（3）山东省农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性的耦合协调度持续提升，从2014年的0.5621初级协调提升至2024年0.8834优质协调等级，空间上呈现出显著的集中连片分布特征，西部地区两系统的耦合协调程度明显优于东部沿海区域；（4）山东省农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性耦合协调度动态转移特征倾向于自保状态或向相邻类型转移，跨水平转移概率较低但存在向下转移的风险,其中，优质协调城市向下转移的概率为16.7%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The coordinated promotion of agricultural low-carbon transformation and food security is the core issue of regional sustainable development. Based on the analysis of the coupling mechanism of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and grain production resilience, this paper takes Shandong Province as the research object, and measures the agricultural carbon emission efficiency and grain production resilience through the super-efficiency SBM model and comprehensive evaluation method. The coupling coordination degree of the two systems is measured by using the coupling coordination degree model, kernel density estimation and spatial Markov chain, and the spatial and temporal differentiation law and future evolution characteristics are revealed.The results show that : (1) The efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong Province showed a fluctuating upward trend, from 0.54428 in 2014 to 1.03369 in 2024. The efficiency values of each city showed a distribution pattern of high efficiency in the western region and low efficiency in the eastern region. (2) From 2014 to 2024, the resilience level of grain production in Shandong Province increased from 0.1834 to 0.5893, but the regional development was not balanced, and the overall trend was decreasing from west to east.(3) The coupling coordination degree of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and grain production resilience in Shandong Province continued to increase, from 0.5621 primary coordination in 2014 to 0.8834 high-quality coordination level in 2024. The spatial distribution showed a significant concentration of contiguous distribution characteristics. The coupling coordination degree of the two systems in the western region was significantly better than that in the eastern coastal region. (4) The dynamic transfer characteristics of the coupling coordination degree between agricultural carbon emission efficiency and grain production resilience in Shandong Province tend to be self-protected or transfer to adjacent types. The probability of cross-level transfer is low but there is a risk of downward transfer. Among them, the probability of downward transfer of high-quality coordinated cities is 16.7 %. |
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