| 王秉义,陈燕,叶琼,闫梦茹.山东省农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性的交互作用及时空演进[J].安徽建筑大学学报,2025,33(6):62-74 |
| 山东省农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性的交互作用及时空演进 |
| The Interaction and Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency and Grain Production Resilience in Shandong Province |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 农业碳排放效率 粮食生产韧性 耦合协调度 山东省 核密度估计 空间马尔科夫链 |
| 英文关键词: agricultural carbon emission efficiency grain production resilience coupling coordination degree Shandong province kernel density estimation Spatial Markov Chain |
| 基金项目:安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题项目（2024CX062）；自然资源部江淮耕地资源保护与生态修复重点实验室开放课题项目（ARPE-2023-KF04）；合肥市哲学社会科学规划项目（HFSKQN202523） |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 王秉义 | School of Public Policy and Management, Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China；Key Laboratory of JiangHuai Arable Land Resources Protection and Eco-restoration,Hefei 230601,China | | 陈燕 | School of Public Policy and Management, Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China | | 叶琼 | School of Public Policy and Management, Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China | | 闫梦茹 | School of Public Policy and Management, Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 农业低碳转型与粮食安全协同推进是区域可持续发展的核心议题。本文在剖析农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性交互作用的基础上，以山东省为研究对象，分别通过超效率SBM模型与综合评价法测度农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性，并运用耦合协调度模型、核密度估计及空间马尔科夫链方法，测算两系统的耦合协调程度，揭示其时空分异规律和未来演进特征。研究结果表明：（1）农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性存在相互促进、协同发展的耦合协调关系；（2）2014—2024年山东省农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性水平呈波动上升趋势，但区域发展不均衡，呈现西高东低的分布格局；（3）山东省农业碳排放效率与粮食生产韧性的耦合协调度持续提升，表现出集中连片分布特征，西部地区耦合协调程度优于东部沿海区域；（4）山东省各城市耦合协调度趋于向相邻城市转移，当协调程度高的城市与协调程度低的城市相邻时，向下转移的风险更大。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The integrated advancement of agricultural low-carbon transition and food security constitutes a critical pathway toward regional sustainable development. Focusing on Shandong Province, this study examined the interplay between agricultural carbon emission efficiency and grain production resilience. By employing the super-efficiency SBM model and a comprehensive evaluation method, agricultural carbon emission efficiency and grain production resilience were respectively quantified. Furthermore, through the application of a coupling coordination degree model, kernel density estimation, and a spatial Markov chain approach, the coupling coordination level between the two systems was assessed, and their spatiotemporal differentiation patterns along with future evolutionary trends were delineated.The results indicate that: (1) A coupling and coordinated relationship exists between agricultural carbon emission efficiency and grain production resilience ; (2) From 2014 to 2024, the levels of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and grain production resilience in Shandong Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend. However, regional development was uneven, showing a distribution pattern with higher levels in the west and lower levels in the east; (3) The coupling coordination degree between agricultural carbon emission efficiency and grain production resilience in Shandong Province exhibited a sustained upward trend, demonstrating a spatial pattern characterized by contiguous agglomeration. Specifically, the western region displayed a higher level of coupling coordination compared to the eastern coastal areas; (4) The coupling coordination degree of cities in Shandong Province tended to transfer to adjacent cities. When the cities with high coordination degree were adjacent to the cities with low coordination degree, the risk of downward transfer was greater. |
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