|
| 基于Markov-FLUS模型的城市扩张模拟及其对生态系统服务价值的影响——以长三角地区为例 |
| Simulation of urban expansion based on Markov-FLUS model and its impact on ecosystem service value: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta region |
| 投稿时间：2025-04-25 修订日期：2025-08-09 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 城市扩张 生态系统服务价值 Markov-FLUS模型 多情景模拟 长三角地区 |
| 英文关键词: urban sprawl value of ecosystem services Markov-FLUS model multi-scenario simulation Yangtze River Delta region |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目 （52408045）《公共生活视角下15分钟生活圈步行网络服务效能表征、影响机制及优化策略研究》；安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目（SK2021A0344）《基于社会-生态视角的蒙洼乡村聚落系统韧性评估与适应性机理》；安徽省高校省级人文社会科学研究优秀青年项目（2022AH030030）《徽州传统村落社会生态系统韧性评估与适应性机制研究》 |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 145 |
| 全文下载次数: 0 |
| 中文摘要: |
| [目的]城市扩张对生态系统产生重要影响，模拟城市扩张变化并探究其对生态系统服务价值的影响，为合理引导城市发展、维护生态安全具有重要意义。[方法]以长三角地区为研究对象，利用城市扩张强度指数、当量因子法分别测算城市扩张强度指数、生态系统服务价值；采用Markov-FLUS模型模拟不同情景下的2030年和2040年土地利用变化，探讨城市扩张对生态系统服务价值的影响。[结果]（1）Markov-FLUS模型模拟精度高，Kappa系数均超0.85，总体精度超91%。（2）2000-2020年长三角城市扩张显著，东部沿海最快，皖北和苏北地区扩张慢，ESV在皖南和浙南较高。（3）城市扩张强度指数三种情景分别为0.0232、0.0052、0.0035，ESV在三种情景中分别为8592.02亿元、8993.37亿元、9519.12亿元。不同情景下土地利用变化明显，降低扩张速度能有效提升ESSV。（4）城市扩张对ESV的影响复杂，生态环境好的城市负相关，稳定发展城市影响小，经济发达或地理受限城市与ESV变化同步。[结论]城市扩张对生态系统服务价值产生负面影响，但不同地区、不同发展阶段的城市扩张对ESV的影响明显不同，应针对不同城市采取针对性的发展政策，促进城市发展与生态系统的协调性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| [Objective] Urban expansion has an important impact on ecosystems, and it is of great significance to simulate the changes of urban expansion and explore its impact on ecosystem service value, so as to reasonably guide urban development and maintain ecological security. [Method] Taking the Yangtze River Delta region as the research object, the urban expansion intensity index and ecosystem service value were measured by using the urban expansion intensity index and the equivalent factor method, respectively. The Markov-FLUSH model was used to simulate land use change in 2030 and 2040 under different scenarios, and the impact of urban expansion on ecosystem service value was explored. [Result](1) The Markov-FLUSH model has high simulation accuracy, with Kappa coefficients exceeding 0.85 and overall accuracy exceeding 91%. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the urban expansion of the Yangtze River Delta was significant, with the fastest expansion in the eastern coastal area, the slow expansion in northern Anhui and northern Jiangsu, and the higherESV in southern Anhui and southern Zhejiang. (3) The urban expansion intensity index is 0.0232, 0.0052 and 0.0035 in the three scenarios, and theESV is 859.202 billion yuan, 899.337 billion yuan and 951.912 billion yuan in the three scenarios, respectively. The land use changes are obvious under different scenarios, and reducing the expansion rate can effectively improve ESSV. (4) The impact of urban expansion onESV is complex, with cities with good ecological environment negatively correlated, cities with stable development having little impact, and economically developed or geographically restricted cities with synchronousESV changes. [Conclusion] Urban expansion has a negative impact on the value of ecosystem services, but the impact of urban expansion onESV is obviously different in different regions and at different stages of development. |
|
View Fulltext
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |
