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| 基于Leak-Noisy-or-Gate和贝叶斯网络的装配式建筑供应链韧性评价 |
| Resilience evaluation of prefabricated building supply chain based on Leaf Noisy or Gate and Bayesian network |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-23 修订日期：2024-11-28 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 装配式建筑 供应链韧性 贝叶斯网络 Leak-Noisy-or-Gate模型 致因链分析 |
| 英文关键词: prefabricated building Supply chain resilience Bayesian network Lead Noisy or Gate model Cause Chain Analysis |
| 基金项目:安徽省住房城乡设计科学技术计划项目(2022-RK053) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本研究旨在评估装配式建筑供应链韧性并识别关键影响因素及其致因路径。鉴于供应链韧性的重要性，通过构建基于 Leak - Noisy - or - Gate 模型和贝叶斯网络的理论框架，填补现有研究在致因路径分析方面的空白。采用问卷调查收集数据，利用 SPSS 软件进行 Z-score 标准化处理，结合 GENIE 软件对贝叶斯网络模型仿真模拟。结果表明装配式建筑供应链韧性实现概率为 68%，处于良性水平，设计方案可行性、产品质量问题、制造工艺规范化、构件运输能力、配送及时性为关键影响因素。本研究丰富了相关理论，为企业提供改进方向，具有重要理论和实践价值。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study aims to evaluate the resilience of the prefabricated building supply chain and identify key influencing factors and their causal pathways. Given the importance of supply chain resilience, a theoretical framework based on the Leaf Noisy or Gate model and Bayesian network is constructed to fill the gap in causal path analysis in existing research. We collected data through a questionnaire survey, standardized the Z-score using SPSS software, and simulated the Bayesian network model using GENIE software. The results show that the probability of achieving resilience in the prefabricated building supply chain is 68%, which is at a benign level. The feasibility of design schemes, product quality issues, standardized manufacturing processes, component transportation capacity, and timely delivery are key influencing factors. This study enriches relevant theories, provides improvement directions for enterprises, and has important theoretical and practical value. |
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