| 曹泽,邹辉.中国房地产开发投资对经济增长的影响—基于协整与ECM的实证研究[J].安徽建筑大学学报,2017,25(4): |
| 中国房地产开发投资对经济增长的影响—基于协整与ECM的实证研究 |
| An Empirical Research on the Influence of China’s Real Estate Investment on Economic Growth—Based on the cointegration test and ECM |
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| DOI：10.11921/j.issn.2095-8382.20170419 |
| 中文关键词: 房地产 协整检验 误差修正模型（ECM） |
| 英文关键词: Thereal estate Cointegration test Error correction model. |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目（16BRK026）；安徽省教育厅自然科学研究项目（KJ2016JD10）；安徽建筑大学硕博基金项目（建院函〔2012〕118号） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于协整理论及误差修正模型，对我国1995~2016年间房地产开发投资与国内生产总值的关系进行研究。结果表明：样本期内，中国房地产市场发展与经济增长之间存在着长期平衡和短期波动的关系。从长期发展来看，中国房地产企业每增加1%的投入额，就会给我国经济发展增加0.6705%的收益；而从短期波动来看，房地产企业每增加1%的投入额，GDP增长0.3362%。作为终端类产品，房地产产业链长，投资额大，对经济的影响是长期显著的。保持国民经济的长期平稳增长，需要构建以政府、企业和个人为主体，市场机制真正发挥作用的房地产市场。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The paper is based on China’s real estate investment development and the gross domestic product data from 1995 to 2016, using the theory of cointegration and ECM . The research results of the model show that there is long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship between real estate market development and economic growth in our country . From the point of long-term development , real estate enterprises 1% increase in the forehead , and it will add 0.6705% to the economic development of China ; From the point of short-term fluctuations , real estate enterprises 1% increase in the forehead , and it will add 0.3362% to the economic development of China . On the basis of the research , it shows that as the end product , the real estate industry chain keeps long and investment is large , which is significant for the economic impact of long-term . It need to build the government , enterprises and individuals as the main body , and market mechanism can play a real role in the real estate market to keep stable and sustainable growth of national economy. |
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